Edmunds Predicts Slight Uptick in Hybrid Sales for 2010

Edmunds is predicting 11.5 million cars will be sold in the US in 2010. That's up from the 10.3 million cars and trucks from 2009. Of those, 3.2 percent in 2010 will be hybrids, up from the 2.8 percent (assuming they are right about December) for 2009.  3.2 percent equates to 368,000 units sold in 2010, up from 288,400 units in 2009.

That means Edmunds expect the half a percent gain each year will continue.

"Most car shoppers will focus on value and fuel economy as the economy continues to recover," stated Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "It has already become trendy to make sensible choices, and we expect that this will be a theme for 2010 sales."

In 2009, diesel market share will be 2.1 percent. Edmunds expects that to remain stable at about 2.2 percent for 2010. But a stable market share in a year with increased number of sales, means the numbers will go up.

My question is, do these figures include the new plug-ins on the way?

BTW, I don't expect plug-in hybrids (or E-REV vehicles like the Volt) to actually make a big impact one way or the other in 2010, as the number available will still be very low.  I just wasn't sure where they were being counted.

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EPA Releases Fuel Economy Figures for 2009

The EPA is projecting another increase in fuel efficiency for MY 2009 vehicles. That's the fifth consecutive year in a row in which car makers and buyers have made and bought more fuel efficient cars. Although the gain from last year was small, 21.0 mpg to 21.1 mpg, the five year gain sits at 9% since 2004.

The numbers for 2008 were finalized in the report, while the numbers for 2009 are still being projected, with the authors cautioning that 2009 has been turbulent and "It is impossible to predict whether actual MY2009 fuel economy will be higher or lower than the preliminary MY2009 value."

The fuel efficiency gains (if they are realized) are coming despite the prediction that weight and performance will also be increasing from 2008, albeit slightly.

Something to keep in mind when you read the following table:

Most of the CO2 emissions and fuel economy values in this report are a single adjusted composite (combined city/highway) CO2 emissions or fuel economy value, consistent with the real-world estimates for city and highway fuel economy provided to consumers on new vehicle labels, in the EPA/DOE Fuel Economy Guide, and in EPA's Green Vehicle Guide.

MY2007 – 2009 Marketing Group Fuel Economy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(Adjusted Composite Values)
Marketing Group	MY2007		MY2008		MY2009
	Fuel Economy	CO2	Fuel Economy	CO2	Fuel Economy	CO2
	(mpg)	(g/mi)	(mpg)	(g/mi)	(mpg)	(g/mi)
Honda	23.3	382	23.9	372	23.6	376
Hyundai-Kia	22.9	388	23.7	374	23.4	380
Toyota	23.3	382	22.8	389	23.2	383
Volkswagen	21.9	405	22.3	398	22.8	398
Nissan	21.3	418	21.9	406	21.6	411
BMW	21.5	415	21.2	419	21.6	412
General Motors	19.2	463	19.7	452	19.9	447
Ford	18.9	471	19.4	459	20.5	434
Chrysler	18.6	479	19.3	460	18.7	476
All	20.6	432	21	424	21.1	422

One thing to keep in mind when you see such small overall gains is the upcoming changes in the CAFE rules.  Car makers are going to be pushed to increase their fuel efficiency at a high rate over the coming years.

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One Million Miles of Plug-in Hybrid Driving

The Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), run by the US Dept of Energy (DOE), has now run their plug-in hybrid test vehicles for one million miles.

Using fleet and public drivers the AVTA is attempting to assess and demonstrate Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). They have now surpassed the 1 million mile mark, plus they have had 26,000 'charging events' to date. With more than 215 PHEVs, and 12 different PHEV models, the test fleet is testing benchmark performance.

The testing has looking at energy consumption, via gas or electricity, in a wide range of operating conditions. The test vehicles are in 23 states and Canada. They are also examining the various factors that affect PHEVs, such as air temperature and human behavior.

See the report from July to get a good idea of what the AVTA is looking at with their test fleet. It's amazing what a difference driving 'aggresively' vs 'mild' can do to gas mileage.

By measuring the different factors, the AVTA hopes to demonstrate vehicle energy consumption results and potential electric grid impacts.

The AVTA's PHEV testing effort involves more than 75 testing partners, including electric utilities; city, county, state, federal and provincial governments; universities and colleges; clean air agencies; private companies and other organizations. As part of the AVTA, INL also collaborates with testing partner Argonne National Laboratory, which performs laboratory dynamometer testing of each PHEV model tested on the road. This testing partnership provides an important link between standard laboratory test results and real-world performance. In addition to Argonne, INL also collaborates with other DOE laboratories by sharing PHEV data analysis and reporting.

The AVTA is conducted by Idaho National Laboratory and the Electric Transportation Engineering Corporation (eTec) for DOE's Vehicle Technologies Program. The AVTA also tests other electric drive vehicles such as hybrid electric vehicles and neighborhood electric vehicles. Additional information about the testing results can be found at http://avt.inel.gov/

INL is one of DOE's 10 multiprogram national laboratories. The INL performs work in each of DOE's strategic goal areas: energy, national security, science and environment. INL is the nation's leading center for nuclear energy research and development. Day-to-day management and operation of the laboratory is the responsibility of Battelle Energy Alliance.

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Latest Poll Says 45 Percent Embrace Hybrids

The AP conducted a poll to determine peoples environmental consideration. In a telephone survey of more than 1,000 adults, AP and NBC Universal found that "60 percent of those surveyed felt either a "great deal" or "a lot" of personal responsibility to protect the environment, while 37 percent rarely, if ever, even thought about the impact of their actions on the Earth's health."

About 45 percent of those surveyed embraced the idea of gas-electric hybrid cars, but only 1 in 5 would be very likely to buy such a vehicle, and half said they were "not at all likely" to buy one.

Since hybrid sales range from 2-3+% of the overall auto sales each month, that's not a surprising number to see.

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NHTSA Study Questions Safety of Hybrids

Before I get into why the study is flawed on the face of it, I want to make it clear that I believe that hybrids, when running in all electric mode, can be more dangerous than cars that are at least making a little bit of noise. Having said that, cars that are traveling at low rate of speeds these days are not necessarily all that noisy in the first place.

On to the NHTSA study:

According to the executive summary (emphasis is mine),

This study found that pedestrian and bicyclist crashes involving both HEVs and ICE vehicles commonly occurred on roadways, in zones with low speed limits, during daytime and in clear weather, with higher incidence rates for HEVs when compared to ICE vehicles.

...

Incidence rate of pedestrian crashes in scenarios when a vehicle makes a turn was
significantly higher for HEVs when compared to ICE vehicles.

...

bicyclist crashes involving HEVs at intersections or interchanges were
significantly higher when compared to ICE vehicles

Now, again, I want to point out that the reasons for worry are valid. Hybrid cars are quiet when they are running at low speeds. There is some cause for concern. Having said that, the analysis and conclusions in this study must be taken with a big grain of salt.

Issues that Cloud
First, the sample size is absurdly low. The researchers themselves point out the data is limited and further data is needed to draw any real conclusions.

This analysis was conducted on a total of 8,387 HEVs and 559,703 ICE vehicles that met the selection criteria. A total of 77 and 3,578 pedestrians were involved in crashes with HEVs and ICE vehicles, respectively. A total of 48 and 1,862 bicyclists were involved in crashes with  HEVs and ICE vehicles, respectively.

77 and 48 accidents involving hybrids is a small number to draw on.  The less data you have the less likely you can make any strong statements about the analysis.

Second, related to the first point, there are only 12 states represented. I cannot say whether driving habits vary from state to state, but anecdotally, they certainly do. That's not really a big point, but it should be noted.

Third, the comparison was made with similar vehicle types, so it's not really a comparison of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

The HEVs (case group) selected were the Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry,
Toyota Prius, Honda Civic, and Honda Accord. The ICE vehicles (control group)
selected are the Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, and Honda Accord. The
analysis is limited to vehicles of model year 2000 and later.

I can't help but point out the Corolla, which has no hybrid version, is in the list of hybrids. It's a typo, I'm sure.  But the conclusions may not be generalizable to HEVs vs ICE.  But there's nothing really wrong with selecting the controls in this way (there is, but I'll get to that in a minute).  It's just the distinction isn't necessarily being made about what the control group really is at other sites and it's an important one.

But the reasons above are just really incidental and not really important, other than to point out some of the limitations that may not be clear when you read the headlines.

The Real Reason This Study Should Not be Used

No, the big reason why this study is a problem is the lack of other confounding information. You may be comparing similar cars, but you may not be comparing similar drivers.

Hybrid car owners, up to a certain point, are a different type of driver, and are self selected individuals. People who buy a Prius are not necessarily going to choose a Corolla instead. Hybrid car owners are wealthier and are older. Drivers who are older and wealthier, if there were no such things as hybrids, aren't necessarily going to buy the ICE models shown.

It should also be noted that this is where the limitation of the number of states used is important.  The reason why groups of buyers choose hybrids can vary widely from state to state.  It's very easy to say, anecdotally, that hybrid buyers in Massachusetts are buying more for the environmental concerns, than buyers in Texas.

And an argument can and should be made that it's the people that cause accidents, not the cars.

But even if you don't buy that (and I believe you should), there's also no mention of how much the cars are driven? Incident rates for accidents should be calculated using miles driven.

Follow me on this. Hybrid car owners probably bought their car because they are more concerned with their fuel economy. They are most likely concerned with fuel efficiency because they drive farther than other drivers. More miles on the road, or more time on the road, means you have more of a chance to have an accident.

John, who only drives two miles to work every day is a lot less likely than Mary, who lives down the block but drives 40 miles to work every day, to have an accident. There's no mention of miles driven in this report, because the data isn't there.

If that's true, then it may be that hybrid car owners, if they drive more than others, may end up being safer drivers in most situations, since the incident rates for hybrid car owners in this study would end up being a lot lower. But that's just speculation and I have no way of backing that up.

Conclusions
Again, I do believe there is a reason to be concerned when it comes to hybrids at low speeds. They do run quieter and the likelihood of surprising pedestrians who aren't looking is most likely higher. But gas engines tend to be pretty quiet these days. I don't buy the 2x as dangerous results for certain situations shown in this study, and neither should you.

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Is This Misleading or What?

It's stories and quotes like this that prove the point that some have been making about switching from mpg to gallons per mile (gpm). 

Consumer Reports

The Honda Insight hybrid showed the largest drop in fuel economy—over 15 mpg going from 55 to 75 mph
...
Vehicles with lower fuel efficiency had the smallest drop. The V8-powered Mercury Mountaineer has a fuel economy of 23.8 mpg at 55 mph and that drops to 21.2 mpg at 65 and 17.8 at 75 mph..

That is just so misleading.  In gallons per mile, the Insight drops from 1.93 gallons per 100 miles to 2.74 gpm.  That's a difference of 0.81 gpm.  The Mountaineer drops from 4.20 gpm to 5.62 gpm, a difference of 1.42 gpm.

So not only are starting off at twice the inefficiency, you end up losing almost twice as much.

This is exactly the misleading nonsense a switch from mpg to gpm would fix.

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Almost Half of Consumers Want a Plug-in Hybrid

A poll run by Pike Research shows that 48% of those surveyed would be 'extremely' or 'very' interested in purchasing a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with a 40 mile charge.

Pike polled 1,041 U.S. consumers through an online poll. The executive summary is available on their website.

Since 85% of those surveyed feel that fuel economy would 'be an important factor when choosing their next vehicle' and 82% drive under 40 miles a day, that's not surprising. But the expectations were a little bit out of line. Although 65% were willing to pay a premium to buy a PHEV, the average premium they expect was only 12%. Given that the Chevy Volt is going to cost $40,000 (although there will be a $7,500 tax credit available if you qualify), the 12% premium is definitely out of touch.

Pike notes that 79% would be interested in investing in a fast-charging outlet for their home.

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Nissan Backs eTec By Deploying 1,000 LEAF Electric Vehicles

As part of the $2.4 Billion in grant money being handed out yesterday, the Electric Transportation Engineering Corp (eTec) received $99.8 million. After matching the grant by regional project participants, a total of $199.6 million will be used to install approximately 2,500 charging stations in each of the selected markets – Tennessee, Oregon, San Diego, Seattle and the Phoenix/Tucson region.

Nissan will be adding in to the mix 1,000 LEAF electric vehicles (EV) in each market. The LEAF has a range of 100 miles of all electric power on a full charge and can seat 5.

The EVs will be used to collect and analyze data characterizing vehicle use in diverse topographies and climate conditions, evaluate the effectiveness of charging infrastructure, and conduct trials of various revenue systems for commercial and public charging infrastructure. To test and analyze electric vehicle usage and charging patterns in a simulated, mature charging environment, the deployment of charging infrastructure will target major population areas.

“Nissan appreciates the support of the Department of Energy in helping jumpstart the electrification of the transportation sector,” said Scott Becker vice president, Legal and General Counsel, Nissan North America. “This is a major step in promoting zero-emission mobility in the United States. Nissan is looking forward to partnering with eTec to help make electric cars a reality and to help establish the charging networks in key markets.”

“This project will enhance America’s leadership role in clean electric transportation and exemplifies the Department of Energy’s strategic foresight and commitment to improving our environment, economy and energy independence,” said Jonathan Read, president and CEO, ECOtality, parent company of eTec. “By developing a rich charge infrastructure in each market, this project will enable a successful consumer experience among early EV adopters and increase market demand for electric transportation.”

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Education Proves to be Big Factor for Plug-in Efficiency

The plug-in trials in Seattle have shown a big improvement in fuel economy, going from 51 mpg to 57 mpg in June (Plug-In Hybrids’ Fuel Economy Lookin’ Up In Seattle | Autopia | Wired.com). That's a big improvement, and although still below expectations, it's a factor of two things.

First, the weather improved. Just as with conventional gas engines, the warmer weather helps improve fuel economy. The second big factor is education.

Driver behavior plays a huge role in maximizing fuel economy in a plug-in hybrid. You’ve got to use a light touch on the accelerator, mind your speed and plug in at every opportunity to keep the battery charged. The plug-ins are divvied up among the city, King County, Seattle City Light, the Port of Seattle and Puget Sound Air Quality (a 14th car in Tacoma wasn’t included in the current data set). Fleet managers have been telling drivers how their driving style impacts fuel economy.

“You hope the message is getting through. It’s an educational effort,” Thomsen said.

And it's one that car makers have got to keep in mind. The success of plug-in vehicles is going to depend on educational efforts by auto makers as they sell the vehicles. If a customer comes in, expecting 100+ mpg, but only get 50 mpg, who's he going to blame for it? What do you think his outlook is going to be like? What do you think the media is going to say about it?

At the prices expected (estimates for the Chevy Volt put it at $40K), customers are going to expect a little magic. Not 51 mpg. Especially since current hybrids that you don't have to plug in can get similar numbers (the current Prius has an EPA rating at 50 mpg).

The plug-in hybrids being used in the Seattle trials are converted 2005 Prius, which were rated at 46 mpg by the EPA.

It’s worth noting that the Prius wasn’t designed to be a plug-in hybrid. The biggest problem is the electric motor is too small, so the car relies more heavily on the gasoline engine. Software also limits the top speed in all-electric mode to 34 mpg. Anything more than that and the engine takes over. Cars designed from the ground up to be plug-in hybrids, like the plug-in Prius that Toyota is working on will almost certainly offer far better fuel efficiency than a converted car.

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Will Plug-ins Continue to Disappoint?

With plug-in hybrids on the way, I think most people will expect too much from them. With possible claims like "never have to re-fuel again" or 100+ mpg, we may be setting the bar too high for popular adoption.

Looking at the recent study results from google.org and now SDG&E (via GCC), we're seeing a consistent pattern of 60-70 mpg results in real-world driving (Google set up a controlled test where they got 90+ mpg). Toyota has already warned of high expectations for their plug-in Prius.

Not that 60-70 mpg is a bad fuel economy.  It truly is a great improvement over most hybrids fuel economy (although the 50 mpg from the Prius and 40 mpg from the Insight make the numbers seem less remarkable). But when you look at the price tag for the extra large batteries, are the numbers good enough?

According to the SDG&E test results over the past two years, the plug-in hybrid at 68 miles per gallon (MPG), achieved a 58-percent increase in gas mileage, a 37-percent decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) tailpipe emissions, and a 10-percent reduction in fuel costs. Two 2007-model standard hybrid vehicles were tested and then converted them into plug-in hybrids, using a lithium-ion battery conversion kit. In the most recent study, the prototype battery was replaced with a production-model battery. The same pool of drivers was used during vehicle evaluation.

When compared with a conventional gasoline-fueled vehicle that averages 22 MPG, the plug-in hybrid achieved a 68-percent reduction in tailpipe emissions and a 54-percent reduction in overall fuel costs.

SDG&E points out the California electricity capacity could recharge as many as 4 million plug-in hybrids when charged during off-peak hours. The savings for these 4 million theoretical drivers could add up to $4.2 billion a year at today’s average gasoline price of $3 per gallon when compared to 15 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity for 14,400 miles driven annually.

So perhaps the gas savings would be enough to offset the initial cost of a plug-in hybrid. But unless expectations are tempered, the initial reaction for new buyers will be "68 mpg? Is this all I'm getting for my money?"

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Hybrid Car Sales, the Recession and Gas Prices

Recently,  I was contacted about a quick calculation I did back in July of 2007.  I simply calculated the correlation between gas prices and hybrid car sales up to that point.  Not surprisingly, the correlation was very high (0.855) and very significant.

The student who contacted me used the data I had collected, then updated the data to show that the relationship was still very strong.

I decided to see if the correlation still stands up myself.  It had dropped (R= 0.75, p-value < 0.0001), but it was still strong.  (See the first figure to see how strongly the number of hybrids sold is related to gas price that month).  More on that drop later.

For those of you who are already bored with the statistics, skip down to the conclusions.

A More Complicated Model
I also wanted to add some other things to the mix.  So, I decided to run some more complicated regression models using hybrid car sales as the outcome.  I tried modeling gas price, month, time, and the number of models available.  (Time is just a counter for each month starting in January of 2004, when I started tracking hybrid car sales).  I quickly came to the conclusion that hybrid car sales were related to all of these things, but unfortunately, they were also highly correlated to each other.

Gas prices were highly correlated with time (R = 0.55, p-value < 0.001) and number of models sold (R = 0.43, p-value = 0.0004).  And the number of hybrid car models sold is highly correlated with time (R = 0.96, p-value < 0.0001). 

So I decided that I could (and should) drop something and quickly tossed out the number of models sold.  As long as I have the other variables, number of models would just muddy the waters (confound).

I ran a regression model using dummy variables for the months, time, and gas prices.  I got a good fit (R-squared - 0.72, adjusted R-squared of 0.65).  But the residual plots looked off.  The residual plot showed why the correlation had dropped from when I ran this back in July, 2007, but it didn't explain why.  

It almost looked like there was a curve to the residual plot, so I tried modeling with different time variables, but that didn't seem to fit the bill.  I tried a few other interactions, but nothing seemed to make the problem go away.

I was almost resigned to just leaving it at that, but then I decided to try one more thing.  I decided to model the recession, seeing as how that seems to have had a big affect on car sales.  So I created a dummy variable indicating a break point in May of 2008.  It seemed to do a good job, so I threw it into the whole model and voila, it worked pretty well (See the table of Parameter Estimates and the second figure).

Parameter Estimates
Variable	DF	Parameter Estimate	Standard Error	t Value	Pr > |t|
Intercept	1	-4469.28975	2416.66010	-1.85	0.0703
Gas_Price	1	56.88336	10.86820	5.23	<.0001
Recession	1	-13179	1663.59432	-7.92	<.0001
time	1	398.61143	43.60902	9.14	<.0001
January	1	-3876.86879	2181.03947	-1.78	0.0816
February	1	-3206.59171	2179.80633	-1.47	0.1475
March	1	2635.57235	2187.10717	1.21	0.2339
April	1	1694.27245	2209.67133	0.77	0.4468
May	1	4994.91892	2281.48836	2.19	0.0333
June	1	476.40455	2430.98600	0.20	0.8454
July	1	-16.45925	2425.43771	-0.01	0.9946
August	1	-160.91587	2391.17318	-0.07	0.9466
September	1	-3606.45695	2378.10359	-1.52	0.1357
October	1	-2834.32326	2316.73403	-1.22	0.2269
November	1	-1697.19686	2279.80620	-0.74	0.4601

The overall model fits pretty well (R-squared = 0.87, adjusted R-squared = 0.84).

Conclusions

If you don't mind, I'm going to take some liberties with my conclusions. No good statistician would accept these conclusions (and they shouldn't!), but I'm going to write it this way to spark some thought.

If we take the model on it's own, it seems the recession is responsible for sales of hybrid cars dropping over 13,000 units. Also, every time the gas price goes up a penny, 57 more hybrids are sold that month. And, for every month that passes, 400 more hybrid cars are sold than in the previous month (allowing for seasonal differences). The seasonal differences aren't significant.  This is probably due to gas prices being affected by the seasons, so adding the months doesn't really add much to the ability of the model to explain hybrid car sales.  But you can see that March through May are better for sales, while the winter months can be tough.

It's a little surprising to me how correlated gas prices are to hybrid car sales.  Yes, I expect there to be a relationship between them, but not as strong a linear one as we see here.  I would have expected other factors to muddy the relationship (lack of inventory early on, number of models being sold, month of sale, federal tax credits, etc...), but it seems that gas prices trump those things.  But the recession has had a huge affect, trumping even gas prices.

Where Do We Go From Here
That leads us to some interesting questions.  Will we see a bounce back when the recession ends?  If gas prices dropped down too much, would car companies turn away from hybrid technology once again (look at the history of hybrid and electric cars, turn of the century, to understand what I'm saying).  Should the government mandate higher gas prices in order to force consumers to consider hybrids on a larger scale?

Plug-in hybrids and electric cars are probably going to suffer even worse at the hands of gas prices than hybrids do now.  Given their larger price-tags, most consumers are likely to shy away unless there's some other factor pushing them towards on.  It's hard to know for sure, but these are some of the questions we need to consider going forward.




By the way, I ran the models using SAS v9.1.3.

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Prius Most Satsifying to Own Along With Lexus in the UK

According to the latest J.D. Powers Survey, What Car?, the Lexus RX and the Toyota Prius are the first and second ranking models in the UK.

The Prius, in particular, scored well on running costs and vehicle quality/reliability. The RX scored highly on quality/reliability and appeal, as well as servicing at the dealership.

"Sales of SUVs may be on the slide, but it’s clear that owners of the Lexus RX 4x4 would gladly recommend their car to others," said Steve Fowler, editor of What Car? "Many of the RXs in the survey were hybrid models, and with the hybrid Toyota Prius in second place, it’s clear that environmentally friendly cars are hugely satisfying to own."

The Toyota Prius ranked highest in the upper medium car model.

According to the survey, satisfaction levels and brand loyalty are strongly linked, with more than 59 percent saying they "definitely will” consider buying the same vehicle make in the future. Only 18 percent of those who reported a less satisfying experience intend to buy the same.

The redesigned 2009 UK Vehicle Ownership Satisfaction Study (VOSS) is the successor study to the UK Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) and is based on the evaluations of more than 15,700 online interviews from UK car owners after an average of two years of ownership. The study includes 29 brands and 101 models. Owners provide detailed evaluations of their vehicles and dealers, which cover 67 attributes grouped in four measurements of satisfaction. In order of importance, they are: vehicle appeal (37%), which includes performance, design, comfort and features; vehicle quality and reliability (24%); ownership costs (22%), which includes fuel consumption, insurance and costs of service/repair; and dealer service satisfaction (17%).

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JPMorgan Predicts One in Five Hybrids by 2020

JPMorgan is predicting a sharp rise in hybrid vehicles by 2020. By 2020, one in five cars sold in the US will be hybrid. That will fuel a worldwide market for hybrid parts which will rise from just over $3 billion last year to over $23 billion by 2020.

Demand will be pushed by stricter government restrictions in the US and Europe. JPMorgan believes 11.28 million hybrid vehicles will be sold in 2020. That will account for 13.3 percent of worldwide sales.

The other half of the demand will come from lowering costs. JPMorgan estimates hybrid system costs; including batteries, motors and computer hardware, will drop from $5,667 to $1,890 per unit by 2020.

Also, don't forget rising fuel costs, which is already seen to be a major force behind hybrid car sales.

Source: Nearly 20% of U.S. cars will be hybrids by 2020, forecast says - Automotive News, Study: Hybrids to make up one in five U.S. car sales by 2020 - [2010 Toyota Prius] - MotorAuthority - Car news, reviews, spy shots, and Global hybrid sales to top 11 million units by 2020

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