JD Powers Predicts September Will Be Back to Normal

Which may not be a good thing, since normal right now is still down.

"Low inventories and reduced incentives, combined with the effects of CARS pull-ahead sales, spell tough conditions for September," said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. "September's retail SAAR is projected to be the lowest selling rate in 2009. However, improving consumer confidence and credit conditions in the months ahead are likely to help to rebuild the retail industry."

In other words,  September total light-vehicle sales are being projected at 29% below September 2008 sales.

At the same time, the sales mix will also return to normal.  The Cash for Clunkers (CARS) program had compact car sales up to 28% in August.  In September, JD Powers predicts it will drop back down to 19%, which is consistent with the sales mix pre-CARS.



Does this mean that the Cash for Clunkers program had a negative affect or a null affect?  If sales are down 28%, that puts it at about the level it was pre-CARS, making the short term affect null.  But it may be that sales are down because of low inventories brought on by the rush to sell by CARS.  In that case, we'll see a rebound as inventories come back up in the next month or two.

In other words, it may be too soon to tell.